preventive-medicine-2018-posters-abstracts

Preventive Medicine 2018

Journal of Preventive Medicine

ISSN: 2572-5483

Page 64

July 16-17, 2018

London, UK

Edition of International Conference on

Preventive Medicine

& Public Health

Objective:

The study aimed to develop an epidemic dynamics

model for the transmission and prevention of hand-foot-and-

mouth disease (HFMD) induced by EV71 virus.

Methods:

A SEIR model for susceptible, exposed, infected and

recovered HFMD patients was created based on research results

and actual incidences of HFMD in China using mathematical and

epidemic dynamical methods. Time-fitted curves determined by

the relevant parameters were adopted to simulate the epidemic

process，and the effectiveness of the model with and without an

intervention was evaluated.

Results:

Comparison of the results of data fitting to the model for

HFMD cases occurred in China from 2009 to 2015 with the actual

incidence showed that the model fitted well to the maximum

number of infected HFMD patients and that the simulated trend

of epidemic process was identical to that of the actual situation.

Implementation of intervention measures was demonstrated to

effectively delay the onset of HFMD epidemic peaks and reduce

the number of incidence during peak seasons. Finally, we make

use of the parameter values of the year 2013 and 2014 to simulate

and forecast the number of patients of 2015, and the predictive

results inosculate well with the real-world situations.

Conclusion:

The model created in this study is suitable for

simulating the spread of HFMD in China and may be used to

evaluate the effectiveness of relevant intervention and preventive

measures.

The application of epidemic dynamics on the prediction and

prevention of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) induced by

EV71 virus

Li Luo

and

Pei Liu

Southeast University, China

J Prev Med 2018, Volume 3

DOI: 10.21767/2572-5483-C1-003