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Alzheimer’s and Dementia
Journal of Neuropsychiatry
ISSN: 2471-8548
December 06-07 , 2018
Amsterdam, Nether l ands
Alzheimer’s and Dementia 2018
Page 14
A
string of recent phase 3 Alzheimer’s disease (AD) trial failures targeting
primarily amyloid beta (A-β) have challenged hopes for finding an effective
disease-modifying therapeutic. Despite some recent advances, this has resulted in
some skepticism regarding the current value of the AD pipeline and its potentially
over-weighted focus on therapeutics targeting A-β. To investigate these concerns,
we have compiled a database of all current phase 2 and 3 AD therapeutics that has
disease-modifying targets through a query of the National Institutes of Health’s
ClinicalTrials.gov. We then assessed the potential therapeutic success as well as
financial value of the current AD pipeline. Financial modeling utilized risk-adjusted
net present value (rNPV) measurements. Results indicate that the preponderance
of current phase 3 trials is indeed targeting A-β with only 15% of the therapeutics
addressing other targets. However, the current pipeline of phase 2 trials consists
of a rich diversity of targets, with A-β based therapeutics representing <30% of
those in development. Modeling data with commercial assumptions built on the
experiences of adjacent fields such as cardiovascular disease, the estimated total
risk adjusted net present value of current phase 2 and 3 therapeutics combined
is $182 billion over 10 years. This figure increases to a theoretical cumulative
value of $422 billion when also treating asymptomatic individuals at high risk for
developing AD. This value requires the global availability of rapid and easy to use
diagnostic biomarker(s) of AD risk. Results from sensitivity analyses of financial
model assumptions and different drug development strategic approaches will be
reported. The promise of the current AD therapeutic pipeline will be discussed in
addition to the complex financial ecosystem necessary to maintain a healthy AD
pipeline. Diagnostic biomarkers of AD risk will be critical to reach the full global
potential of treating individuals in need.
On the horizon: the value and promise of the
global late stage pipeline of Alzheimer’s
disease therapeutics
Michael A Cole
1,2
and Guy R Seabrook
3
1
Clinical Science Program, University of California Berkeley, USA
2
Global Neurohealth Ventures, USA
3
Johnson & Johnson Innovation, USA
Michael A Cole et al., J Neurol Neurosci 2018, Volume: 2
DOI: 10.21767/2471-8548-C1-001
Biography
Michael A Cole received his MA in Behavioural Neuroscience
from University of Colorado, MBA from UC Berkeley; PhD in
Neuropsychology from the University of Florida and completed
his Internship and Residency in Clinical Neuropsychology at the
UCLA School of Medicine. He is an Assistant Clinical Professor
in the UC Berkeley Clinical Science Program and Founding
Partner for Global Neurohealth Ventures. He has published 20+
peer-reviewed journal articles and continues active practice as
a Clinical Neuropsychologist.
michaelcole@berkeley.edu